2009 Emmy Predictions

After a brief hiatus, TVCasualties is BACK with our mothereffing Emmy Predictions. YEAH!

Drama Series:
“Big Love” (5/1)
“Breaking Bad” (2/1)
“Damages” (7/2)
“Dexter” (10/1)
“House” (9/2)
“Lost” (15/2)
“Mad Men” (1/2)

Our Pick: Breaking Bad
In the most humble opinion of the TVCasualties, this is the best show on television. It combines the artistic quality of an HBO series with the suspenseful elements of serials like Lost and the  X-Files, making it the perfect blend of art and entertainment. From top to bottom, it’s a fucking awesome production.

Our Prediction: Mad Men
While Breaking Bad is my first choice, I wouldn’t be upset to see the favorite, Mad Men pull out a back-to-back win. The second season was better than the first, and in two seasons the show has solidified itself as one of the best shows of the decade, let alone right now.

Comedy Series:
“30 Rock” (2/7)
“Entourage” (8/1)
“Family Guy” (7/1)
“Flight of the Conchords” (12/1)
“How I Met Your Mother” (5/1)
“The Office” (3/1)
“Weeds” (10/1)

Our Pick & Our Prediction: 30 Rock
Though I would have loved to see Party Down get at least a nomination, 30 Rock remains the funniest show on TV. My only complaint is that the show has become rather gratuitous with the guest spots, and those that feature the guest prominently usually aren’t very funny.

Reality Competition Program:
“American Idol” (5/1)
“Dancing with the Stars” (1/1)
“Project Runway” (6/1)
“The Amazing Race” (5/4)
“Top Chef” (5/1)

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Top Chef
Bravo has had the best reality shows in the last 5 years. Project Runway’s last season was probably the weakest, and Top Chef has maintained the excitement throughout each season. Not that it wasn’t frustrating as hell to watch that douchebag, Hosea, win it.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series:
Simon Baker, “The Mentalist” (2/1)
Gabriel Byrne, “In Treatment” (5/1)
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad” (3/2)
Michael C. Hall, “Dexter” (15/3)
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men” (2/1)
Hugh Laurie, “House” (7/2)

Our Pick: Gabriel Byrne
No show relies more on it’s lead actor than In Treatment. And because of the content and the format, no actor connects more directly with the audience than Gabriel Byrne. I’m not saying it couldn’t have been a good show without him, but it definitely would have been a different show. It’s so intensely personal that I can’t help but get the feeling that Byrne is a pretty cool dude.

Our Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Another pretty cool dude. Because of his role in Malcolm in the Middle, I’d sort of written Cranston off as a lame sitcom actor. I was dead wrong. The writers of Breaking Bad put Cranston’s character, Walter White, in an endless variety of awkward, tense, and downright disastrous situations, and he nails every scene.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series:
Glenn Close, “Damages” (1/1)
Sally Field, “Brothers and Sisters” (3/2)
Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: SVU” (15/2)
Holly Hunter, “Saving Grace” (5/1)
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men” (5/1)
Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer” (5/2)

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Elisabeth Moss
I’m calling for an upset on this one, based partially on the strength of Mad Men, in addition to Moss becoming a more central character.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:
Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” (2/3)
Steve Carell, “The Office” (2/1)
Jemaine Clement, “Flight of the Conchords” (15/2)
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory” (5/2)
Tony Shalhoub, “Monk” (15/2)
Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men” (5/1)

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Alec Baldwin
This will make it two in a row for Baldwin. He’s still the funniest character on the funniest show.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:
Christina Applegate, “Samantha Who?” (4/1)
Toni Collette, “United States of Tara” (5/2)
Tina Fey, “30 Rock“  (1/3)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine” (15/2)
Mary-Louise Parker, “Weeds“  (8/1)
Sarah Silverman, “The Sarah Silverman Program

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Tina Fey
30 Rock outclasses all of the other shows by a long stretch, plus Fey can pull of pretty much any style of comedy- self deprecating, silly, awkward, robot-penis, and more,

Reality Host:
Tom Bergeron, “Dancing with the Stars“
Tom Colicchio & Padma Lakshmi, “Top Chef“
Phil Keoghan, “The Amazing Race“
Heidi Klum, “Project Runway“
Jeff Probst, “Survivor Vanuatu“
Ryan Seacrest, “American Idol“

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Tom Colicchio (& Padma Lakshmi)
I actually wish it were possible for only Tom to win this award, because Padma has become a real harpy lately. Some of her comments (in particular, calling  Stefan’s dessert in last year’s finale “pedestrian at best”) were so pretentious I almost projectile vomited on the tv screen. Strong words for a chick who gets paid to stand there and look pretty as she nibbles amuse-bouche.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
Christian Clemenson, “Boston Legal” (15/2)
Michael Emerson, “Lost” (3/2)
William Hurt, “Damages” (20/23)
Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad” (4/1)
William Shatner, “Boston Legal“  (5/1)
John Slattery, “Mad Men” (3/1)

Our Pick: John Slattery
I can’t quite put my finger on why I like this guy so much, but I do. He’s one of those guys where I get the feeling that there’s a little bit of himself in the character, but there’s also not another character on TV quite like it.

Our Prediction: Aaron Paul
While Slattery is our pick, we won’t be disappointed at all if Aaron Paul wins. He’s a fanfuckingtastic character on one of our favorite tv shows. Cranston did a lot of the heavier lifting in the first season, but season 2 was an emotional rolly-coaster for Aaron’s character, Jesse. This is one of the most pathetic characters that you’ll still end up rooting for.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:
Rose Byrne, “Damages“  (5/4)
Hope Davis, “In Treatment” (13/4)
Cherry Jones, “24” (4/1)
Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy” (11/2)
Dianne Wiest, “In Treatment” (11/2)
Chandra Wilson, “Grey’s Anatomy” (1/1)

Our Pick and Our Prediction: Dianne Wiest
And it’s not just because she was the mom in the original The Lost Boys movie. It’s immensely entertaining to watch her and Gabriel Byrne play a sort of chess match with complex psychological and emotional concepts.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series:
Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” (7/2)
Kevin Dillon, “Entourage” (15/2)
Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother” (4/7)
Jack McBrayer, “30 Rock” (5/1)
Tracy Morgan, “30 Rock” (5/2)
Rainn Wilson, “The Office” (3/1)

Our Pick: Kevin Dillon
Entourage as a show would be boring at this point without Dillon’s character.

Our Prediction: Neil Patrick Harris
He’s the hostest with the mostest… and he’s hilairous, too. The fact that I still hear people uttering words of shock when they find out that “Barney is GAY?!” makes it even better.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series:
Kristin Chenoweth, “Pushing Daisies” (9/4)
Jane Krakowski, “30 Rock” (27/20)
Elizabeth Perkins, “Weeds” (5/1)
Amy Poehler, “Saturday Night Live” (3/1)
Kristin Wiig, “Saturday Night Live” (7/2)
Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty” (9/4)

Our Pick and Prediction: Jane Krakowski
Being able to keep a straight face when she bursts into song mid-sentence deserves an award in itself.

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